Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:00 · Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 45%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic31%28%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Birmingham City45%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 39% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Feb 24 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · at Southampton (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Feb 11 · v Stoke City (H)1-0
Birmingham City
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Mar 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-3
- Feb 25 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Feb 15 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 10 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Birmingham City form·Head-to-head record