Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 40%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 31 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-3
- Oct 24 · v Norwich City (H)1-3
- Oct 17 · at Watford (A)0-2
- Oct 13 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
Bolton Wanderers
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 31 · v Bristol City (H)2-3
- Oct 23 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-5
- Oct 17 · at Southampton (A)0-0
- Oct 13 · at Wolverhampton (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Stoke City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Bolton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record