Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 14:00 · Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 38%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic48%38%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Bristol City26%33%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 67% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 62% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 54% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Mar 21 · v Norwich City (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
Bristol City
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 21 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · v Coventry City (H)0-2
- Feb 27 · v Watford (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Bristol City form·Head-to-head record