Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Bristol City42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Cardiff City (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Portsmouth (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Stoke City (A)0-4
- Sep 2 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
Bristol City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Southampton (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Burnley (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Bristol City form·Head-to-head record