Championship (England) · Tue, Jan 20 · 19:45 · Charlton Athletic vs Derby County
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 35%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic49%35%+14
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−7
OursMarket
Derby County26%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 38% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 65% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 51% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Jan 17 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Jan 10 · v Chelsea (H)1-5
- Jan 4 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-2
- Jan 1 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Dec 29 · at Portsmouth (A)1-2
Derby County
LossWinLossLossWin
- Jan 17 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Jan 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Wrexham (H)1-2
- Jan 1 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- Dec 29 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Derby County form·Head-to-head record