Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Charlton Athletic vs Derby County
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 35%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic46%35%+10
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Derby County28%36%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 65% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 50% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Aug 8 · at Cheltenham Town (A)3-1
- May 2 · at Swansea City (A)1-3
- Apr 25 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
Derby County
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 8 · v Lincoln City (H)1-2
- May 2 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
- Apr 21 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Oxford United (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Derby County form·Head-to-head record