Championship (England) · Wed, Apr 22 · 18:45 · Charlton Athletic vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 19%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic48%19%+29
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Ipswich Town26%56%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 44% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 81% | −29 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 25% | +40 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Apr 18 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Preston North End (H)1-2
- Apr 6 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · v Norwich City (H)0-1
Ipswich Town
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Apr 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
- Apr 6 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Millwall (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.