Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 15:00 · Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 46%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic46%21%+24
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Norwich City30%51%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 49% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 79% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 29% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Mar 14 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Feb 24 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
Norwich City
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 18 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Preston North End (H)2-0
- Mar 11 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
- Feb 28 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Charlton Athletic form·Norwich City form·Head-to-head record