Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Charlton Athletic vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Portsmouth36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 9 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Stoke City (A)0-4
- Sep 2 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
- Aug 26 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-5
Portsmouth
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Cardiff City (H)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Derby County (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Bristol City (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Lincoln City (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.