Championship (England) · Wed, Feb 11 · 19:45 · Charlton Athletic vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 35%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic48%35%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−6
OursMarket
Stoke City28%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 65% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 50% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Feb 6 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Millwall (A)0-4
- Jan 20 · v Derby County (H)1-2
- Jan 17 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
Stoke City
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Feb 7 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Jan 31 · v Southampton (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-2
- Jan 17 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.