Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 · Charlton Athletic vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 31%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlton Athletic45%31%+14
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Wrexham30%40%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 60% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 69% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 43% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlton Athletic
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 24 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · at Southampton (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Feb 11 · v Stoke City (H)1-0
- Feb 6 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
Wrexham
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 24 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-3
- Feb 17 · at Bristol City (A)2-2
- Feb 13 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · v Millwall (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Charlton Athletic | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.