Liga Portugal 2 (Portugal) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:45 · Chaves vs Vizela
Likeliest: Vizela win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chaves33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Vizela36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chaves
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 16 · v CF Marialvas (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Lusitânia Lourosa (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · at SC Farense (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · at Guarda FC (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v Feirense (H)1-0
Vizela
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Atletico CP (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Sporting CP B (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at SCE Bombarralense (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · at FC Porto B (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Felgueiras (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Chaves | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.