National League South (England Amateur) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Chelmsford City vs Tonbridge Angels
Likeliest: Chelmsford City win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Chelmsford City56%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Tonbridge Angels18%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelmsford City
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Wimborne Town (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Chesham United (A)5-0
- Oct 3 · at Brackley Town (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Canvey Island (A)1-0
- Dec 6 · v Weston-super-Mare (H)0-2
Tonbridge Angels
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Hemel Hempstead (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Maidenhead United (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Torquay United (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Ramsgate FC (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Chatham Town (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Chelmsford City | Tonbridge Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-2 | 5-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.