Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 27 · 15:30 · Chelsea FC vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Chelsea FC win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea FC37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Arsenal34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea FC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 23 · v Austria Wien (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Birmingham City W.F.C. (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
Arsenal
WinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 22 · v HB Køge (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea FC | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-0 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | — |
| Both teams scored | 33% | — |
| Clean sheets | 67% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.