UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 23 · 19:00 · Chelsea FC vs Austria Wien
Likeliest: Chelsea FC win · 93%
A tight one: we make it 93% for the home win. The market says 90%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea FC93%90%+3
OursMarket
Draw4%7%−3
OursMarket
Austria Wien3%3%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 78% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 97% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 7% | 10% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 93% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 97% | 97% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea FC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Birmingham City W.F.C. (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)5-2
Austria Wien
WinWinLossWin
- Sep 1 · v SK Brann Kvinner (H)4-0
- Aug 25 · at SK Brann Kvinner (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v FC Farul Constanta (H)5-0
- Aug 5 · v ŽNK Hajduk (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Chelsea FC | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-0 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — |
| Clean sheets | 60% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.