Women's Super League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:45 · Chelsea FC vs Birmingham City W.F.C.
Likeliest: Chelsea FC win · 92%
A tight one: we make it 92% for the home win. The market says 89%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea FC92%89%+3
OursMarket
Draw5%7%−2
OursMarket
Birmingham City W.F.C.3%3%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 97% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 8% | 11% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea FC
WinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)5-2
Birmingham City W.F.C.
LossDraw
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Manchester City (A)1-3