UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Aug 26 · 17:45 · Chelsea FC vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Chelsea FC win · 53%
A 24% away win. The market says 7%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea FC53%81%−28
OursMarket
Draw23%12%+11
OursMarket
Real Sociedad24%7%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 66% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 93% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 19% | +28 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 88% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 92% | −23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.