Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 30 · 19:30 · Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 52%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea52%62%−10
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth25%17%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 63% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 83% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 38% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 79% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Dec 27 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- Dec 20 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Dec 16 · at Cardiff City (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · v Everton (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
AFC Bournemouth
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 27 · at Brentford (A)1-4
- Dec 20 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Manchester United (A)4-4
- Dec 6 · v Chelsea (H)0-0
- Dec 2 · v Everton (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.