Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 30 · 16:30 · Chelsea vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 45%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea31%29%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Arsenal45%42%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 41% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Nov 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Nov 8 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · at Qarabağ (A)2-2
- Nov 1 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-0
Arsenal
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Nov 26 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)4-1
- Nov 8 · at Sunderland (A)2-2
- Nov 4 · at Slavia Praha (A)3-0
- Nov 1 · at Burnley (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.