EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Jan 14 · 20:00 · Chelsea vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 40%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea34%29%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Arsenal40%43%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 41% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Jan 10 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Jan 7 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Dec 30 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Dec 27 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
Arsenal
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Jan 11 · at Portsmouth (A)4-1
- Jan 8 · v Liverpool (H)0-0
- Jan 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)3-2
- Dec 30 · v Aston Villa (H)4-1
- Dec 27 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.