Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 27 · 17:30 · Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea47%52%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+2
OursMarket
Aston Villa26%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 69% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Dec 16 · at Cardiff City (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · v Everton (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 21 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Dec 11 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.