Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Bournemouth20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Leeds United (H)6-3
- Sep 6 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-3
Bournemouth
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · v Lincoln City (H)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.