Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 17 · 15:00 · Chelsea vs Brentford
Likeliest: Brentford win · 41%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea35%56%−21
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Brentford41%20%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 80% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 44% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 73% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Jan 14 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
- Jan 10 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Jan 7 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Dec 30 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)2-2
Brentford
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Jan 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Jan 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Jan 4 · at Everton (A)4-2
- Jan 1 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
- Dec 27 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.