Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 30 · 13:00 · Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 44%
A 44% away win. The market says 24%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea35%51%−17
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−3
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion44%24%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 76% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 49% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 68% | −24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 27 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
- Aug 24 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- May 24 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- May 19 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- May 16 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 27 · v Tromsø IL (H)4-0
- Aug 23 · v Aston Villa (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
- May 24 · v Manchester United (H)0-3
- May 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Chelsea form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record