Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Chelsea vs Everton
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 56%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea56%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Everton21%20%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 74% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Dec 9 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
- Dec 3 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Nov 30 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Nov 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-0
Everton
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Newcastle United (H)1-4
- Nov 24 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v Fulham (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.