Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Chelsea vs Hull City
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 81%
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea81%78%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
Hull City7%7%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 93% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 92% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 9 · v Leeds United (H)6-3
- Sep 6 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-3
- Aug 27 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
- Aug 24 · at Fulham (A)3-2
Hull City
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 8 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.