Premier League (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 19:30 · Chelsea vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 50%
A 28% away win. The market says 17%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea50%61%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Leeds United28%17%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 58% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 83% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 39% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 78% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 7 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)3-1
- Feb 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v West Ham United (H)3-2
- Jan 28 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-1
Leeds United
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Feb 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Jan 31 · v Arsenal (H)0-4
- Jan 26 · at Everton (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Fulham (H)1-0
- Jan 11 · at Derby County (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.