FA Cup (England) · Sun, Apr 26 · 14:00 · Chelsea vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 27%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea39%47%−8
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Leeds United39%27%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 73% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 64% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 21 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Apr 4 · v Port Vale (H)7-0
- Mar 21 · at Everton (A)0-3
Leeds United
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Apr 13 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Brentford (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-7-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.