EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Sep 9 · 19:00 · Chelsea vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 41%
A 34% away win. The market says 19%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea41%57%−16
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Leeds United34%19%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 81% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 43% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 75% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-3
- Aug 27 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
- Aug 24 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- May 24 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
Leeds United
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- May 24 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.