EFL Cup (England) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:30 · Chelsea vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 41%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea37%79%−42
OursMarket
Draw22%14%+8
OursMarket
Luton Town41%7%+34
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 66% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 93% | −34 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 21% | +42 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 86% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 92% | −44 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Aug 24 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- May 24 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- May 19 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- May 16 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
Luton Town
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v Notts County (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Reading (A)4-3
- Aug 8 · at Gillingham (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Barnsley (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.