Premier League (England) · Sun, Apr 12 · 15:30 · Chelsea vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 39%
A 38% home win. The market says 28%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea38%28%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−1
OursMarket
Manchester City39%48%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 72% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 37% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossLossLossLossWin
- Apr 4 · v Port Vale (H)7-0
- Mar 21 · at Everton (A)0-3
- Mar 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
- Mar 14 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Mar 11 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-5
Manchester City
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Apr 4 · v Liverpool (H)4-0
- Mar 22 · at Arsenal (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Real Madrid (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.