FA Cup (England) · Sat, May 16 · 14:00 · Chelsea vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 59%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea21%20%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Manchester City59%55%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 55% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 27% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossLossWinLossDraw
- May 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-0
- Apr 21 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
Manchester City
WinWinDrawWinWin
- May 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- May 9 · v Brentford (H)3-0
- May 4 · at Everton (A)3-3
- Apr 25 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · at Burnley (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.