Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 17:30 · Chelsea vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 50%
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea50%53%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Newcastle United29%24%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 68% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Mar 11 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-5
- Mar 4 · at Aston Villa (A)4-1
- Mar 1 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Hull City (A)4-0
Newcastle United
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Mar 10 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Manchester City (H)1-3
- Mar 4 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Everton (H)2-3
- Feb 24 · v Qarabağ (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.