Premier League (England) · Mon, May 4 · 14:00 · Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 40%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea35%56%−21
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest40%20%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 55% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 80% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 44% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 73% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinLossLossLossWin
- Apr 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-0
- Apr 21 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Apr 4 · v Port Vale (H)7-0
Nottingham Forest
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 30 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 24 · at Sunderland (A)5-0
- Apr 19 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Apr 16 · v Porto (H)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.