Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Mar 17 · 20:00 · Chelsea vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 40%
A 39% away win. The market says 34%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea40%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain39%34%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 56% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 14 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Mar 11 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-5
- Mar 4 · at Aston Villa (A)4-1
- Mar 1 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · v Burnley (H)1-1
Paris Saint Germain
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Mar 11 · v Chelsea (H)5-2
- Mar 6 · v Monaco (H)1-3
- Feb 28 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Feb 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
- Feb 21 · v Metz (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.