Premier League (England) · Tue, May 19 · 19:15 · Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 40%
A 33% away win. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea40%46%−5
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur33%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 61% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- May 16 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-0
- Apr 21 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
Tottenham Hotspur
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- May 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.