Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Everton (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Bournemouth (H)5-1
- Sep 18 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Leeds United (H)6-3
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 19 · v Coventry City (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Liverpool (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Everton (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.