Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 17:30 · Chelsea vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 56%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chelsea56%62%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
West Ham United21%16%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 38% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 79% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chelsea
LossWinWinWinWin
- Jan 28 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-1
- Jan 21 · v Pafos FC (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Jan 14 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
West Ham United
LossLossWinWinWin
- Jan 24 · v Sunderland (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
- Jan 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Jan 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Chelsea | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.