EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 16:30 · Cheltenham Town vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 43%
A 31% home win. The market says 18%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheltenham Town31%18%+12
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic43%58%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 42% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 82% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 24% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheltenham Town
WinWinLossLossLoss
- May 2 · v Colchester United (H)1-4
- Apr 25 · at Bristol Rovers (A)0-4
- Apr 21 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · v Newport County (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · v Gillingham (H)2-1
Charlton Athletic
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- May 2 · at Swansea City (A)1-3
- Apr 25 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Preston North End (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cheltenham Town | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.