Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City
Likeliest: Exeter City win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheltenham Town36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Exeter City37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheltenham Town
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Crawley Town (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · v York City (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Barnet (A)2-2
Exeter City
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Tottenham U21 (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Walsall (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · v Barnet (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cheltenham Town | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.