League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town
Likeliest: Fleetwood Town win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheltenham Town32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Fleetwood Town39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheltenham Town
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Oldham Athletic (A)1-3
- Oct 13 · v Tottenham U21 (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Salford City (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Chesterfield (H)2-1
Fleetwood Town
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Rotherham United (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Walsall (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · v Barnsley (H)4-1
- Oct 3 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Rochdale (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.