League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Cheltenham Town vs Newport County
Likeliest: Cheltenham Town win · 35%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheltenham Town35%39%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Newport County34%33%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheltenham Town
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Oldham Athletic (A)1-3
- Oct 13 · v Tottenham U21 (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Salford City (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Chesterfield (H)2-1
Newport County
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v York City (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Colchester United (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Gillingham (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cheltenham Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.