League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Cheltenham Town vs Salford City
Likeliest: Salford City win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheltenham Town21%24%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Salford City54%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheltenham Town
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Chesterfield (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · v Exeter City (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Crawley Town (A)3-1
Salford City
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Accrington Stanley (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Oldham Athletic (A)4-1
- Sep 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Swindon Town (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cheltenham Town | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.