Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Chengdu Rongcheng vs Dalian Yingbo FC
Likeliest: Chengdu Rongcheng win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chengdu Rongcheng55%54%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Dalian Yingbo FC22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chengdu Rongcheng
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Shanghai Port (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)4-5
Dalian Yingbo FC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)3-1
- Oct 11 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · v Beijing Guoan (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Chengdu Rongcheng | Dalian Yingbo FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.