Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:35 · Chengdu Rongcheng vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Likeliest: Chengdu Rongcheng win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chengdu Rongcheng58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger19%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chengdu Rongcheng
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)4-5
- Aug 15 · at Zhejiang (A)3-2
- Aug 8 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)0-1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Zhejiang (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Beijing Guoan (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Chengdu Rongcheng | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.