K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 25 · 07:30 · Cheonan City FC vs Ansan Greeners FC
Likeliest: Cheonan City FC win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheonan City FC53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Ansan Greeners FC22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheonan City FC
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Gyeongnam FC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Suwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)0-1
Ansan Greeners FC
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Yongin City FC (A)4-0
- Oct 11 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Cheongju FC (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Hwaseong FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Busan I Park (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cheonan City FC | Ansan Greeners FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.