K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 10 · 07:30 · Cheonan City FC vs Gyeongnam FC
Likeliest: Cheonan City FC win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheonan City FC36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Gyeongnam FC34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheonan City FC
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Suwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Suwon Samsung Bluewings (H)0-1
Gyeongnam FC
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Yongin City FC (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Cheongju FC (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Gimhae City FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cheonan City FC | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-2 | 0-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.