K League 2 (South Korea) · Fri, Oct 9 · 07:30 · Cheongju FC vs Seongnam FC
Likeliest: Seongnam FC win · 36%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheongju FC33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Seongnam FC36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheongju FC
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Hwaseong FC (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Gyeongnam FC (H)1-1
Seongnam FC
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Hwaseong FC (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimpo FC (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cheongju FC | Seongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 2-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.