K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 25 · 07:30 · Cheongju FC vs Yongin City FC
Likeliest: Cheongju FC win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cheongju FC39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Yongin City FC32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cheongju FC
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Daegu FC (A)1-3
- Oct 9 · v Seongnam FC (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)0-2
Yongin City FC
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Gyeongnam FC (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Daegu FC (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Suwon FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cheongju FC | Yongin City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-3 | 1-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.