First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · Cherno More Varna vs FK Septemvri Sofia
Likeliest: Cherno More Varna win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Cherno More Varna47%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
FK Septemvri Sofia27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cherno More Varna
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · at CSKA Sofia (A)1-3
FK Septemvri Sofia
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)0-3
- Sep 14 · at Ludogorets (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Slavia Sofia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cherno More Varna | FK Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.